committee chairman max baucus and that is ahead. dennis: the shocking study on how much you would have to learn to be better off than being on welfare. it is time for stocks as we do every 15 minutes less go to the stock exchange where lauren simonetti is keeping the finger on the pulse, stocks finally in the green after four days down. >> up arrows everywhere. down the ten year down, everything else looking positive, 4-1. and declined today. home depot is to talk about and $78 and now it is looking lower, one of the biggest decliners on the dow industrials today. and the housing market, the

recovery is helping the world's biggest home-improvement retailer which is home depot, profits and revenue on the latest quarter, raise numbers for the year but stocks looking stuff goes back to you. cheryl: looking a little better than the last four trading days. retail results and spotlights, second quarter earnings were outlined, the quarter was good for best buy which beat expectations after cutting costs and updating stores, j.c. penney saw revenue fall 12% and third quarter outlook is more positive with the retailer seeing, quote, encouraging signs on back-to-school shopping. power earnings season stacked up so far, who better to take a look at this. in global markets intelligence or as and the capital. you have been watching all the numbers, read through the research and have it sector by

sector. what are you seeing overall when you break it down in the sector? >> big leader this quarter was certainly financials, 20% on a year over year basis, and morgan stanley reporting triple digit year over year growth. and out of the gate we have a lot of retailers, and sort of rapid. and it has done very well. j.c. penney is not a big surprise, and early back-to-school season sales are up so this is big in the third quarter as well. dennis: good when results are less ugly than expected. we have banks and stores among the highest gain years. are those pretty important pulse thats going forward? could the means the economy getting better and this is not

just of love. >> absolutely, 70% of gdp great to see consumer discretionary has done well. there are expected to be a leader in the second half of the year and back-to-school season when the holidays come around and we expect to see consumer discretionary continue to do well. cheryl: a quick thought on the consumer being so strong and payroll taxes, higher year over year, and it is really resilient. >> added that clinton the latest numbers? >> it is the last ten quarters and notice and i am sure everyone noticed those earnings, analysts are very conservative at the beginning of the season and after the last ten quarters at the beginning of earning season before alcoa reports on average four points lower than what we have seen so this quarter shut out differently.

the surprise ratio was 120. not surprising to the upside as much as over it less ten quarters but most of that is the son microsoft, google and amazon. no one expected those to miss as much as they did, amazon by the big is presented in the entire data set that goes back to 1999. still three companies would meet analysts' estimates of growth rate would have been 6% right now we are only up 4.8%. dennis: better than anticipated. when an investor looks at what you are doing on sectors, do we instantly avoid the sectors that have gone up or was there up momentum play in the sectors even though they are, it starts to bring in more money because they are up. >> we do like to take a market sectors that are adding month to growth and give you pull out financials only 1%. lori: you talk about 1%, that is next to nothing. >> you have to look at both

numbers. with financial included, also important to be aware if they weren't included we would be down 4 percentage points. cheryl: you talked about a better second half. what will ultimately be the main 1-2-3 driver of the better second half? >> we need to see string in retail. for the second quarter we had great retail sales, same-store sales, latest reading wasn't as good as the consensus expected but wasn't quite good, we need to continue to see an improving housing data. a lot of the sectors that did well, financials for instance, the rates did very well, improvement in housing, and home builders actually were able to grow year over year because of improving housing sector. but of those pieces, jobs report, you always want to see unemployment continue to take down. dennis: into bling, a hopeful message from someone whose last

name is short. cheryl: we appreciate it. dennis: fed taper fear sending pressure oil prices and fox business contributor phil flynn of price futures group in the trading pits at the cme and any movement from this news out of libya regarding the reopening? >> we had wild swings in the market but more so oil reversed on the concerns some of the protests in libya turned violent, there have been clashes, threats by the libyan government to use force to get protesters out of the way. there is a report that one of the striking groups offered to sell oil on the black market and things are heating up. instead of focusing on catering and slowing demand like we are, we have threats of supply once again. we see it clearly expanding

again. look at products, they were lower this morning. they are running higher and add to the momentum in the trading volatility and we have to timber contract expiring, and we're seeing a lot of buying in the october, selling in september, and picking up the oil. back to you. dennis: phil flynn of price futures group. cheryl: treasurys rising, tweeting you benchmark dropping from the highest level we have seen in two years, year yields jumped 20 basis points on speculation the u.s. economy, to slow stimulus in this meeting. and in the july meeting can be found tomorrow. dennis: barnes and noble shares got crushed as the founder walked away from this plan to buy the company's briquette mortar retail storefront. the company's chairman, founder,

top shareholder says it is in the best interests of the company on the business at hand. and the broader loss a year ago but the 9% drop in same-store retail sales on the nook device and e-books plunged in a market where they're supposed to be growing. lori: shares jumping on the maximum group, agreeing to buy, from all war. and it is still possible. it has proposed a takeover but the deal was slowed, willing to share on treatment, the midst of a trial. an analyst said the market has underestimated the possibility of a potential acquisition and you do see 3%. dennis: democratic senator max baucus and republican congressman dave camp are crossing party lines and hitting

the road trying to get his support for overhauling the federal pass code. rich edson joins us from santa clara, calif. with more on his exclusive interview. peter: we caught up with them for an exclusive interview for fox business. we had some viewer feedback on facebook and asked our viewers what would they ask of the two chairman and overwhelmingly they wanted to know whether or not the two chairman supported a flat tax. >> the assumption behind the flat tax, it is rooted some place else, people want simpler system. they are fed up with what we now have. they think the other guy is getting a break but they are not. your flat tax has the practical results creating winners and losers and under pure flat tax if one were to raise the same revenue that is raised today by

the federal government those operating income taxpayers would get big breaks, and a lot more taxes. the goal is to move the system with fewer brackets than we currently have. maybe one is 20 but fewer than we now have, simplicity, all the rates were simplicity as they were called. >> the goals we are trying to reach, ultimately flat, doesn't seem practical. difficult to have one rates because the disparities in income levels and we have a progressive tax system and for most americans i think they would agree that is an appropriate taxes and to have but the reason the flat tax is viewed favorably is because it is important. we want to simplify and that is the goal we are trying to get

at. >> if your proponent of a cure flat tax is not good news, neither chairman embracing that up your level. the challenge about getting this done by the end of their term, chairman max baucus by the end of the time in the u.s. senate is up in january of 2015, they say they're optimistic to get this done and there are major stumbling blocks, senior democrats in the senate who want tax reform to raise $1 trillion. and max baucus says it has to have some revenue but doesn't think it will be as much. dennis: flat tax good, flat tax dead because it is simple, good report. cheryl: forget economic data, bad news is good news, j.c. penney, disastrous quarterly loss, as investors saying five. dennis: is the video game consoles dead? no way, game culture banking on

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cheryl: as we do every 15 minutes we get a check of the markets, lauren simonetti on the floor of the stock exchange watching a gamer, electronic arts. >> in new annual high, 2792, they are better than the 3%. sony is down, microsoft is the better than 1%. and the mad and franchise. traditional box games to get a boost from new consuls. and the chief operating officer,

peter more speaking, and essentially saying when he sees the 20% growth in digital media. >> not surprised. >> you probably do. dennis: time to make some money in the house of pain, charles payne with a look at a major player. charles: the game stop has been remarkable, a 52 week low. and the global economy, and let's watch this on the global economy replacing the transpose. and melted down. there is a lot of resistance to going at these or going after them but they're going up and global shipping is picking up and rebuilding a construction in

china, here's the thing that bothers me, credit suisse goes upgrade to neutral from underperforming the target from 8 to 10. almost $11. that is the kind of stuff that why people don't make money. year to date the stock is up 46%. and the last 52 weeks of 59%. they are going to like the stock at $15 a share after it has been up a triple digit move. it is buy now and breaks the $11 and the stock is significantly undersole legitimate the rates for different shifts, they are going up almost monthly, a rate indicator. dennis: that was emphatic. cheryl: they come in after this. charles: 59% move but put in the target below where it is. what are you telling me? keep the target at 8, were you doing, confusing people.

dennis: never understood racing to will hold. how can i hold and if you told me not to buy it? before we will go through a hold from a sell. you told me to sell it, how can i hold it? dennis: charles payne. cheryl: for making money to losing money fast, amazon.com experienced a service outage yesterday that hit them right in the wallet. based on 2012 net sales the online shopping giant lost $66,000 per minute or about $2 million in yesterday's 30 minute outage. not the first time amazon had an outage like this one in june of 2008, the company experienced service outage that based on its previous revenue cost $31,000. investors not losing money because the share is looking pretty good, $3. dennis: service outage is a polite word for crash, isn't it? they like that. and we will talk about the safest car on the road, another

extraordinary accomplishment it has landed ceo, elon musk. lori: the federal reserve, the future hold, wall street journal, a flashing and. .

>> firefighters saturday and making progress on extinguishing of a massive fire in idaho. at fire and 960 square miles and forced the evacuation of 2300 homes in the sun valley region. tesla motors models saddam is getting rave reviews from the national highway traffic safety administration. tesla says the federal agency gave the mall s the safety rating of 5.4 starnes. that is the highest rating ever given out to any make and model car in the united states. that the next best selling author elmore leonard died today does three weeks after suffering a stroke. leonard first rose to fame with

the release of western themed novels but is best known for his works get shorty and be cool which were adapted into major motion pictures. leonard was 87 years old. those are your headlines on the fox business network, now back to dennis and nicole. dennis: a big week for the fed. fomc minutes said to be released tomorrow followed by the kickoff of jackson hole on thursday. this only follows reddick of speculation about who will be the new fed chief. for this and more let's turn to wall street journal chief economic correspondent jon hilsenrath. thanks for joining us. tell us do you expect anything new out of the minutes tomorrow or jackson hole which is the best excuse for fly-fishing i have ever seen? >> unfortunately for all those people in jackson hole the big news will come out of the minutes wednesday when we get a peek at what fed officials were

saying at their last meeting in july. there's all this anticipation which is rocking the markets lately about whether the fed starts pulling back bond buying in september. we will get a better sense from these minutes about how they were leaning a few weeks ago. i think that could be a good signal. the jackson hole meeting as we all know ben bernanke is not going to be there this year. first time in a while there hasn't been a big speech that got everyone's attention. it could be a good time to do some fly fishing. cheryl: people believe there will be some tapering sooner rather than later. how do you think that will affect the mentality of the market? and everybody's sense of the economy? is it something merited sooner rather than later? >> it is a tough call right now for the fed. they wanted to see clear signs that the economic outlook was getting better and we have gotten a mixed bag since the last meeting.

the unemployment rate has come down but payroll employment growth has slowed down a little bit, the growth numbers look like they're still in the mediocre range. it will be a hard call for them. one thing i thought was interesting was the scene louis fed president threw out the idea the other day of pulling back but that very small amount. that reflects the end --angst these guys feel about the move they have got to make. after what happened in the bond market that has got to be better more than it was a couple weeks ago. dennis: i got to tell you if they start cutting back bond purchases or raise interest rates a quarter point, so what? it will be a sign things are not as bad as you think. let's talk replacing ben bernanke and let me paint a very evenhanded picture. you have janet yellen, the beloved insider at the fed and this carpetbagger political adviser to the president

lawrence summers, who does the fed wants purses to wall street wants? >> you know, if you ask people at the fed they are both very qualified economists and brilliant people but the bottom line for people at the fed is they are going to be feeling the departure of ben bernanke pretty heavily. ben bernanke was a guy with this even-handed temperament that made a lot of people feel very comfortable. you describe janet yellen has the 11. she is a pretty low-key person but a tough cookie for a lot of people land summers is a top debater. either one of them will have a challenge keeping the peace at this point after ben bernanke leaves. he is a real peace maker. nicole: would you think of jackson hole? any expectations for jackson hole?

>> no. there will be a lot of discussion about whether these policies the feds have been doing are doing much good. there will be a lot of talk about the exit. and the third thing there will be a lot of talk about the impact of the fed on the international market. there will be a lot from all over the world in this thing. so much volatility overseas as people anticipate, a great place for a reporter, a chance to get up close with a lot of decisionmakers but i don't see headlines out of the last few jackson hole meetings and on to your point about the fed pulls back, that is a really good point. the market is getting all excited about did the fed start pulling back in september or october or december? these are really small changes if they pulled back and started

in september or october. dennis: we got to wrap it up. which one? janet yellen or larry summers? >> i am not going to be fearless. i am going to hold back. right now summers looks like he has pulled ahead. dennis: the president, who wants. thank you, jon hilsenrath. nicole: 35 states where welfare pays better than minimum wage. is your state one of those states? the surprising findings of a new survey. dennis: jpmorgan at the crossroads, life-and-death, throwing the old regime under the bus. for retail executive's pick on why a 12% drop in same-store sales may be good news.

dennis: got breaking news for you. kinder morgan confirming reports of a fire at its nat-gas petroleum terminal in harvey, louisiana. there had been report of an explosion. the company is says it is a fire. that is strange distinction. local media say one person is hurt. kinder morgan shares are steady on the news. let's get back to the markets with our own lauren simonetti who is watching some retail winners. lauren. >> dennis, let's talk about tjx. the parent of t.j. maxx and marshals. they posted earnings growth for more than two years. this is where the budget shopper is going. on the other hand, urban outfitters this, is the best performing stock in the s&p 500

today. it is popular teen retailer. trendy with an throw apology. they're doing what so few retailers actually do. they offer fewer discounts and get traffic into the stores. urban is a winner. a lot of analysts like the stock. we have to talk about the leadser, dick's sporting goods. it is down 27% at 47.20. they post ad profit of $84 million but lowered their full year's earnings estimates. when we talk about retail, we talk about weather a lot. dick's sporting goods, blaming bad weather for a drop in traffic. back to you. nicole: that is very interesting, lauren simonetti. thank you very much,. >> thank you. nicole: jcpenney after second-quarter earnings report but investors don't seem worried. shares are jumping 6% at the moment. my next guest agrees. it wasn't a success but actually it was a good report in fact. joining me today with more on

the future of jcpenney january rogers, founder and ceo of j rogers kniffin worldwide enterprises. jan, let's talk about this. you say don't look at the numbers, it is doing pretty well? >> the rear view mirror doesn't count, right? we knew the second quarter was going to be a disaster. it was a disaster but not more of a disaster that we really thought. the 2.66 down is more like 1.10 if you take away all ins an outs. that is 10 cents worse than people thought. and sales were couple percentage point worse than people thought and gross margins were worse but marginally worse. but every month this quarter sales got better than the prior month. nicole: why do you think that is? every month, after month, things are getting better? why? >> well, because they have started to put product back in the store that people will actually buy as opposed to just being pretty which it really was under ron jon's son.

now it has got st. john bay back in the store. that was a billion dollar business ron took out. it is only half there at the moment. so when it is all there, sales will get even better. they brought back more basics. they're doing promotion and doing more marketing. basically retailing 101. do i think, three, five years from now jcpenney will be the world's greatest retailer? no. nicole: right. >> they will have six good quarters here starting with the third quarter? yeah i do. nicole: you mentioned ron johnson, came on for 17 months. he came out. ullman is come in and there since april trying to save the day. maybe he was not given enough time. ackman, no longer a board member, really wanted him ousted but now, what do you think? ackman is off the board. ullman is still in place. do you think this is the right mix? >> well i think mike was the right guy to stablize the business. they told us he was interim when he came in. we didn't know if interim meant

six months or two years. we knew there would be a new person following. he has done a great job stablizing it. he recapitalized business. they're looking for next full-time, long-term ceo. there is no rush. there is a lot of stabilization to be done. i think mike should stay there he should get the work done. should do a methodical search and bring in a great new retailer. >> holiday season back half of the year do you think it will bode well for jcpenney? >> i actually do and bode well for discretionary retail. people are way too negative in the back half of the year. they're looking in the rear view mirror in the last two quarters, that they will not buy apparel or accessories again. they will only go to home depot. that will not be the case. penney's will participate because they have product and promotions. the customer will come back. it may not be fabulous but it will give them positive comps back end of this year and probably all of next year. nicole: that is interesting. do we know george soros is

bullish lately on jcpenney as well as another big guy, kyle bass of h were. nan capital. they're in your court. they think you're right on. >> they decided they wouldn't go broke. that is all they needed to know. soros bought in at the bottom as near as we can tell and same with the bonds. nicole: jan rogers, we appreciate your insight. we'll see, have you back at the end of the year. you were part of may department stores back in the day. you are a guy that knows all about retail. thank you. >> thank you. dennis: al-jazeera america set to hit the airwaves this afternoon at four p.m. eastern after spending a half a billion dollars at that take over current tv the qatar government controlled news channel has a long coveted role in the u.s. cable news business. the channel may face a long battle to gain viewers much less advertisers as some critics say they are sim threatic to radical islam views. teach very will pressplay on a new line of digital video

quarters. called the romeo as in to rome. they will be able to inbed choices in roamio devices. dvr will stream recordings to apple an android devices at home. they will enable out of home viewing later this year. netflix and weinstein company teaming up. they announced a new multiyear deal given the subscription tv service exclusive first-run rights in the u.s. for all weinstein company films. beginning in 2016, feature films from weinstein will be available for netflix viewers to watch immediately once the pay tv window opens. eat your heart out, teach very. nicole: arrest of a top muslim leader boosts have investor confidence in egypt. we have a live report next. dennis: stocks managing to turn it around after a four-day

losing streak, longest one of the year. we're back to a nyse for a trader's take. let's get a check of the 10-year and 30-year treasurys. the boys used double miles from their capital one venture card to fly home for the big family reunion. you must be garth's father? hello. mother. mother! traveling is easy with the venture card because you can fly any airline anytime. two words. double miles! this guy can act. wanna play dodge rock? oh, you guys! and with double miles you can actuay use, you never miss the fun. beard growing contest and go! ♪ win! what's in your wallet?

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industrials for you, right now up 44 points. ally financial says it will pay the u.s. government more than $5 billion to buy back preferred stock the government got for bailing out the company in 2009. the move by the auto financing company is likely step towards exiting government ownership. the government is still $5 billion in the hole on the ally deal. glencore extrata says the half year profit dropped 39% from a year ago to just over $2 billion. the latest the results including a 7 billion-dollar write-down of assets following the merger of glencore and xstrata this year. that is latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper.

dennis: tensions are high on the

sinai border after excuse style slaying of 25 off-duty policemen. egypt stock market is ending three days of declines. we head to fox news's leland vittert. the army detained a top leader of the muslim brotherhood. what do you have on that? >> seems like, dennis, the markets may have been reacting to just that fact. the army has been able to round up much of the brotherhood leadership. there are not nearly as popular as they used to be. 9 army took a gamble rounding these guys up possibly sparking more protests on the street. it appears the brotherhood's ability to put people out on the street and create chaos on the street just isn't there like when they won the elections. they arrested the key leader after president mohammed morsi. the president was deposed there a few weeks ago. he was leading a number about major protest.

the army put him in jail. they're taking a page out of their playbook from the '80s and 90's when the egyptian army ruled with an iron fifth. the brotherhood was outlawed organization and detained members without trial for many, many years. the army has another big problem on its hands with a budding islamic jihaddist insurgency growing inside of egypt especially in the sinai peninsula. overnight the bodies of the 25 policemen who were shot execution-style by jihaddists in the sinai peninsula were brought back to cairo. many think groups sympathetic to the muslim brotherhood will continue carrying out these attacks against the army. they are very well armed considering they got weapons out from libya during the civil war now in the sinai peninsula. the going forward the army seems much more concerned about the threat from islamic radicals and jihaddists than they are from any pulling of u.s. military aid especially since the saudis say they will match dollar for

dollar any money the u.s. pulse. dennis. dennis: thank you, leland vittert. >> as we do every 15 minutes, let's check the markets. jason weisberg from seaport securities on the floor of the new york stock exchange. after days of selling we're bouncing back a little bit. what do you make of it? >> not a lot of faith should be placed in up 50 today or should it be placed last week down 50. these 50-point moves that the markets at these levels are really meaningless. look, you guys, we heard that report from egypt where there's a lot of human tragedy going on. historically that would have a pretty big impact on the market but it is having no impact. unfortunately that is just a testament to how little interest there is interest in the equity market there is overall. nicole: trading range to an extent, back and forth back and forth. we have fed minutes, jackson hole and fall and back to school, et cetera. how do you feel. >> well, i'm excited for the kids to go back to school so i can get back to work. but quite frankly, i think most

investors are going to, you know, they will come back and i think we'll find most people in a position where they will have to chase yield. i think that will force the markets higher. >> interesting. okay. jason weisberg, seaport securities. thanks so much. what u.s. state is america's favorite? which has the most attractive residents? a new poll with all those answers. this is fun next. dennis: and work or welfare? which pays more? the new study from the cato institute and a shocking number of states where punching the clock just doesn't add up. ♪ right now, 7 years of music is being streamed. a quarter million tweeters are tweeting. and 900 miion dollars are changing hands online. that's why hp built a new kind of server.

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dennis: what happens when you make more none any sitting home on welfare than earn in a minimum wage job? according to a cato institute study that is already in the case in some 35 states. joining me now is michael tanner a cato senior fellow and the author of this study. thanks for being with us, michael. so has it always been like this or does this mark some kind of a new high point in federal benefits for the poor? >> well, we originally did this study back in 1995 before welfare reform and, what we find today is that very little has changed. those states that had lowell fair benefits before, still have lowell fair benefits relatively speaking and those that states that had very high welfare benefits like new york and connecticut, massachusetts, d.c. and hawaii, well, they have very high welfare benefits today. dennis: talk to us about new york. you know the federal minimum wage is somewhere around

$7.75 an hour and what us it, how does that compare with what you get on benefits in new york without working a job? >> you can get almost three times as much. it is about $21 an hour you would have to earn pretax in order to do as well as you do on welfare. don't forget that welfare benefits are essentially tax-free, i while the wages you earn are taxed. dennis: wow, that is kind of interesting. now, an unintended consequence of your study may be that somebody will take that say, we have to work to get the minimum wage up, never mind it could cut the number of jobs that could be offered. are you worried that will be the result of this? >> well that is a danger. the fact is, that we, government has very little ability to mandate wage increases. when government tries that through minimum wage, so on, living wage, all they do is make the low-skilled further unemployable. the reality is, most people on welfare have minimal skills,

minimal attachment to the job force. that will make them very hard tome ploy at high wages. now, if they can get into a job, even a low-wage job over time they could work their way up. we know that the best route out of poverty. less than 2.5% of people with full-time jobs are poor. dennis: the study says you stay on a minimum wage job only a year of your entire career. so it is on the way up. the imbalance, the fact that i earn more on welfare than on minimum wage, is it discouraging people going out to get the entry level job and moving up there and should it not discourage them? >> it absolutely is. we know nationwide only 42% of the people on welfare are working, despite the work requirements. what we call working may include looking for work or job training and so on. only one in five is actually working in an unsubsidized job. it doesn't mean they're lazy the it means they're not stupid. if you pay them more not to work than they can get working most people will look seriously at

that. dennis: what should we do to fix this? would we dare, every, cut back on the welfare benefits to make that gap less so? >> well, you know, great britain just capped welfare benefits at 500 pounds a week. i think we look at capping total welfare benefits in this country. at very least, we should strengthening work requirements so that more welfare recipients actually have to work. that is really compassionate thing to do to get them into a program long term that will get them out of poverty. dennis: you said the federal government funded 126 different programs. is the part of the problem the programs are not aware exactly who is doing what and how much individuals can get? >> they're run by something like nine cabinet agencies, four separate independent departments. they overlap. they have contradictly regulations for who is eligible and who is not eligible. you get one program, you lose out on another. it's a real mess. we should be doing some consolidation. dennis: wow. if it were mine i would be

really upset about this. oh, yeah, it is all our money. thanks for being with us, michael tanner. >> pleasure. nicole: a much less serious polls about the states. asking 2,000 americans asking a variety of impressions inincluding hey, what is your favorite state? the majority answered said california, followed by colorado. the americans least favorite state? texas. how about the rudest state. give you a hint, most arrogant. right here in new york. i don't agree with that one. dennis, how about this one, what state has hottest residents? you remember the beach boys song? dennis: i do. nicole: fine, california came in 51% although ranked most overrated state. i thought this was a lot of fun. they had crazy, hot, ugliest, worst scenery. dennis: most popular state has to be the state with hottest looking people. i say there is some kind of

correlation. nicole: so wrong. i like new york too. coming up the battle over detroit's books. unions say detroit city was too quick to file bankruptcy. who will win? we'll check in on the math. that is coming up with ashley webster who joins me the next hour of fox business. please don't miss it. my mantra?

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nicole: welcome back. i'm nicole petallides. ashley: i'm ashley webster. stocks getting a boost from an unlikely catalyst, best buy. the long-struggling retailer easily topping targets and helping lift the mood a little on wall street. the dow and s&p set to break a four-day losing streak. nicole: and gold, flirting with a two-month high after plunging nearly 20% this year. is now the time to bet on a new bull market for gold? one investor makes his case. that's ahead. ashley: a high-stakes battle over the shrimp on your dinner

plate. american shrimpers say cheap imports are strangling their business. billions of dollars in new taxes could be on their way. we'll have a closer look on that story just coming up. nicole: first, it is the top of the hour and it is time now for stocks. our own lauren simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange where we go 15 minutes. lauren, stocks posting modest gains. looking good. >> holding on to gains with two hours left in the trading session today. the dow is up 48 points, nasdaq up 30, and s&p 500 up nearly 11 points. we do have stocks broadly positive today. we have oil trading lower. the 10-year is trading lower and the vix index trading lower today. retail is the name of the game today. best buy shares, big winner hitting a new high earlier of 34.65. the company certainly turning things around, posting their first quarterly profit in a year. so they're starting to do things right. and conveniently, today is the one-year anniversary of ceo of

the company. so best buy is the winner and leading broader market. back to you. nicole: neat. thanks for that fun fact, lauren simonetti. ashley: i went to best buy this weekend and mainly wasn't a painful experience. actually got what i wanted. maybe another nail in the coffee, coffin for jcpenney. retail giant report ad near 12% drop in sales for the quarter but ceo mike ullman says jcpenney is damaged business that is turning around. liz macdonald is on the story, joins us now with her bottom line. is that optimistic thinking, do you think? >> you know it is interesting, put that way, darrell kronk, wells fargo private banking said to fix their problems they went through a lot of cash. 1.2 billion was the cash burn in the last quarter. let's listen to what darrell has to say about that. >> cash burn is the top of my

list. the company is saying they're going to end the year with 1.5 billion in cash. obviously the big swing factor is the fourth quarter. are they going to make, you know, actual profits or actually stem the declines, neutralize the cash burn or is it going to be another negative? that will be the lynchpin in this whole story. >> another lynchpin in the story too is that the company, jcpenney, struggling retailer, bill ackman was basically, he basically quit the board, is the fact that they are trying to boost their sales with private store labels. in other words, like st. john's bay, to bring back the long-time jcpenney shopper. whether those shoppers will come back and not go for the designer brands at tj maxx remains to be seen. another interesting strategy, they're basically saying you know what? it is ron jon's son's fault. the apple retailer who came in as ceo and was ousted. look at the blame game going on at jcpenney. take a look. they're saying no quick fixes to correct the errors of the past. they went on to say previously

the management strategy has not resonated well. they went on to say failed private strategies and strategies of the prior management impacted the stores results. whether they can resuscitate the gross margins is what wall street is looking at with jcpenney remains to be seen as, back to school and holiday shopping comes up. ashley: yeah. >> and do they have, can they do it in time? can they keep the wall street financing behind them? they have been drawing -- $2.25 billion credit line from wall street. in other words not the younger or wealthier crowd that bill ackman and ron jon's son wanted but bringing back the long-time shopper who likes st. john's bay and private label brands, when you have discounters with the private labels attracting same crowd like tj maxx's of the world that remains to be seen. broad zoom focus department stores are not doing so great.

the jcpenney story is in line with that they may have some time, maybe a year or so to turn around. that's right, exactly. ashley: thank you. nicole: elizabeth macdonald. a lot of people are still hot on jcpenney. george soros is still a backer. we have fear over the fed moving to the backburner with the dow on track to snap a four-day session slide. my next guest says september taper is already priced into this market. joining me margie patel, wells fargo capital management senior portfolio manager. thanks for joining us today. we have had four days of selling. today we're bouncing back a little bit. you think the fed will taper at some point and it is already priced in. >> people are expecting the september taper to be small. the market hates uncertainty. how much will they taper? treasuries or mortgages? once that is clarified, market sis toed to do better, markets and stocks. nicole: bonds is your specialty for a long, long time.

you received nominations for some great awards including fixed income manager of the year. you were nominated for that. let's talk about bonds. running up from two-year highs and selling a little bit today. what are your thoughts about bonds going forward. >> i think they're relatively cheap for the amount of tapering we're going to see. i think with inflation, one to 2%, the dollar strengthening bonds are pretty attractive. we've had a backup of well over a whole percentage point across the board and i think they look fairly attractive for income oriented investor. nicole: you like short-term bonds, long-term bonds? >> intermediate, 10-year bond where you capture all the extra yield and don't have to make a 30-year maturity judgment. nicole: right. >> 10-year treasury close to 3%. junk bonds at six 1/2, i think it's a pretty attractive place. nicole: i want to talk about sectors you like. correct plea if i'm wrong, autos, aerospace and consumer staples and consumer

discretionary. among these sectors which one do you want to talk about and like? >> i think the consumer is going to do surprisingly well even though we still have high unemployment. they seem to have enough sources to sustain spending. housing is better and autos are on a multiyear up swing that will benefit that sector but the economy and giving consumers money for other things. nicole: you sound optimistic. i guess things are not great. we have improved, jobs improving to a certain extent, home building et cetera, do you feel optimistic going forward? do you think we're boeing in the right direction? >> very much some i think we've seen the resiliency of the american economy, american business, american workers to come out of the deep hole we were in and the fundamentals of the u.s., i think have never been better as long as i've been in the business and i think we're poised for a multiyear up swing in the economy. nicole: that's pretty, i like that. very optimistic. anything that you're avoiding or staying away from?

i know you liked energy and anything related to shale gas. is there anything you're avoiding to stay away? >> no. i think the economy across the board looks good. i think economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, auto, housing-related, capital goods i think will do well and i think defense will do well. people are so scared about cutbacks in that sector it is probably priced in and those companies will do very well because they have enormous cash flow. nicole: margie patel, i enjoy your chat and giving us insight on everything you put together and your optimism as well. thank you. >> thank you. ashley: talking about optimism, not so much in this part of the world. looks like another bailout for greece is on the way. greek 10-year bond levels hitting highest level in three weeks after german's finance minister said for the first time that greece will need a third bailout. he made the admission at a campaign event five weeks before the german elections. the his comments went beyond more cautious term of chairman

angela merkel. she is careful to anger voters that will have to foot the bill for greece. any greek bailout is expected to be smaller than previous rescues. so obviously a key issue in the german elections. nicole: we certainly hope so. ashley: yeah. so hard for greece like some other countries when you try to make the massive austerity cuts but at the same time how do you grow the economy? an issue played out many times around the world but greece is a very difficult situation as you well know. nicole: so frustrated. ashley: i'm sure. nicole: bullish on tax reform. the chairman of the house and senate tax writing committee says it will happen. so who will pay? our own rich edson reports in a fox business exclusive. that's ahead. ashley: plus questions about, well, fuzzy math in detroit. two top pensions say they're in much better shape than detroit's emergency manager claims. how could that stall the detroit record bankruptcy ahead? oil trading down a little

bit, down to $105.02 a barrel. that is off nearly 2% on the day. we'll be right back. ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all onhinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪

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ashley: it is to time to make money. shares of home furnishing store peer one imports after the stock headed into oversold territory. charles payne is here to talk about it if you love wicker. the company gets upset, a lot of people if you don't go there you associate it with wicker. i associate it more with candles to be honest with you. nice profit margins. ashley: yeah. >> the stock has grown like 50% per year over the last few years because we all kind of became resigned with the fact we were not moving out of our house. we were lucky enough to keep it we hook it up. now the dynamic is changing a little bit. it became oversold and trading in sympathy with the homebuilders. that the homebuilders were ahead of themselves. they pulled back. this stock pulled back. it is relatively cheap. it could be a play on couple of things. a, the strong dollar. they import everything. strong dollar helps them import all their stuff. they import from vietnam,

malaysia. secondly, 61% of their business is in decorative. we can till afford that stuff even though the wages are not necessarily going up. this is if we were bump along economy we can still go to pier 1 and buy a few overpriced candles. nicole: there are some reports how the consumer isn't hitting some of the retailers but doing things for their homes and their car. this would go right that. when i think of pier 1 i you think of candles and wicker. i remember the lanterns, made out of paper in a big ball? >> yeah, yeah. nicole: sort of had an asian look. you remember those? they have everything now. >> last year, done absolutely love. it is a good store. listen the last few years the operating margins have gone up year after year after year. store sales per square foot have gone up year after year. only thing that has gotten a little shaky if you call it

that, same-store sales, 7.5% fiscal year. i still think that is not too bad. trading one times sales, 13 pe. i love risk/reward down here. ashley: as the housing market starts to gain more traction this is a stock that will do much better. >> i hate to say no-brainer, because that's when they crash i feel like i like the risk/reward ratio. put it that way. sort of the, try to be diplomatic bit. domestic play also, guys. a lot of people feeling like the u.s. economy might be better than some others. mostly a u.s. canada. they do have a store within a store concept with sears and mexico of all places but mexico is also an economy on the rise too. people fixing up their houses. buying papier-mache lights. wicker furniture and candles. it plays all over the world. nicole: i could use a few new things. thanks, charles. >> we'll check it out together. nicole: great. it is quarter past the hour. time to check those markets.

lauren simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange where we go every 15 minutes. lauren, you're watching some winners on the nasdaq today. >> i am and the pretty thing about these two charts is how they look over the past 52 weeks. let's start with tesla. remember earlier this summer "consumer reports" said the model s was the best car they ever tested? tessa said the government gave them a five-star safety rating in every single category. this is rare. 1% of cars actually do this. if you look at one-year chart for tesla. the stock prices up more than 400%. the other big winner today is netflix. in fact those shares have hit a new annual high of $222.20. the news they have a deal with the weinstein company for netflix to be the exclusive subscription tv service for the studio's movies starting in 2016. that stock looks really pretty over the last 52 weeks.

the stock is up 200%. back to you. ashley: thank you. let the battle begin in detroit. unions are challenging the motor city's bankruptcy filing and cash-strapped cities around the country you can bet are paying close attention. that's next. nicole: we have to check currencies. here is how the u.s. dollar is moving at the moment. right now, 7 years of music is being streamed.

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ashley: showdown is looming in detroit between emergency manager kevyn orr and the city's two largest pension funds who claim the motor city's finances are not as dire as the emergency manager likes to portray them. we have a senior fellow at manhattan institute. he joins me with more. steven, welcome back. this will be a story we've been talking about for some time. coming in beating the deadline from the unions, pension fund, basically a number of issues, i they have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at this. not constitutional and state and federal constitution, the city has not negotiated in good faith. and that they, the city has to

prove it is insolvent. this is a lot of arguments here. pick it apart and was this to be expected? >> this is to be expected. detroit is not just largest bankruptcy in american history but most complicated. thousands of creditors and detroit doesn't have enough money to pay them so it needs to go into bankruptcy. kitchen sink is very appropriate phrase. unions are throwing at the city everything its lawyers can come up with to slow the process down. remember, detroit is not in bankruptcy yet. these hearings determine its eligible to get into bankruptcy. ashley: meantime the city continues to pretty much decay really under this huge weight of unfunded liabilities. from the judge's point of view the last thing that he wants or the city needs for that matter is for this to be a long, protracted, legal battle where nothing really gets accomplished. >> that is the reputation bankruptcies have and other municipal in bankruptcies california we've seen that to be the case. thus far the bankruptcy judge is

determined to keep things going at reasonable pace. but on the other hand, these objections will have to be aired. some of the objections are obviously junk but others touch on fundamental issues of constitutional law and will have to be addressed. ashley: this claim that the city has not negotiated in good faith. any credibility there? >> we've seen other objections like that in other bankruptcies. the judge has not, has dismissed them. what do you expect unions to say? they didn't like the outcome of the negotiating process so they object to the process itself. they're probably going to see more, seeing more arguments issue of pensions and constitutional issue of pensions. ashley: how will they dispute the claim that the city is not insolvent? >> that is weakest of the objections. insolvency means cash flow insolvency. bills are due and you don't have enough cash to pay them. detroit has been in that situation for years.

to say detroit is not insolvent, i wouldn't put a lot of emphasis but i wouldn't put it past them. ashley: detroit has september 6th to file response to the objections. then what happens? >> probably detroit will be declared eligible for bankruptcy. that's what i think will happen. ashley: how soon could that happen? >> that could happen in october. not all creditors filed for insolvency. wall street creditors, critical of detroit's bankruptcy sort of held their fire in this case. they will see how things play out and object later on once the formal debt reorganization is planned and we see where cuts may occur. thus far really the unions and retirees are putting up a fight over everything. ashley: if i'm not mistaken michigan's attorney general says he is there to defend the pensions, right? >> this is very complicated case. republican attorney general supportive of the bankruptcy proceedings, but on the other hand the michigan constitution has a clause that pension

benefits can not be cut. the attorney general said he has obligation to defend it. he doesn't object to the eligibility case. he thinks bankruptcy could go forward and will take the side of unions on this case he said. ashley: bankruptcy does not cure a lot of ails that detroit has. poor services. deserted neighborhood. this is purely a financial play. there is awful lot more to deal with, is there? >> bankruptcy is all about the debt but restructuring of city government, you know, getting more police back on the street, restoring the city's basic reputation for competence and honest government they have a long way to go before detroit can make a sound case on that front. ashley: a lot of cities are keeping close eye on the outcome. >> very much. ashley: steven, thank you so much. i'm sure we'll have you back many times if you agree to come back but appreciate your time. >> happy to. ashley: thank you. nicole: 10-year yields pulling back a little bit now but hitting two-year highs basically over the last week as the market, try to predict what the fed will do at the next meeting

in sent but what does this mean for the tepid housing recovery? will the fed actually step in? peter barnes is standing by in washington, d.c. with more on this one. peter barnes, what do you think? >> hey, nicole, one former fed economist thinks that rates could keep rising before they normalize. the yield on 10-year treasury is down slightly today after hitting a two-year high yesterday of nearly 2.9%. that is way up from the low of 1.6% in may. the economists kevin hassett of aei, thinks some of this is due to stronger economic data recently. he thinks some of it was caused by mistakes by the fed. he says the fed should have announced a small haircut in its bond purchases last spring, maybe even just a few million dollars less than the current 85 billion in bond purchases it makes each month, to show that tapering had begun and also declaring that it could reverse the tapering if the economy

weakened. he argues that would have reduced the surprise factor in tapering. an minimized the anxiety over it now, plaguing the markets. >> i think that was communication error because what it has done, it made the market really, really antsy. i would expect it will be extraordinarily volatile time in the bond market and interest rates in the end will still have to go up maybe as much as another 100 basis points at the long end. ashley: has sits thinks the fed could taper by $10 billion at its september meeting. mortgage rates have backed up the last couple months to 4.4% for a traditional 30-year loan from 3.5% in may but the recent data on housing show it is unclear how much that rise in interest rates has hurt sales and prices. mortgage applications fell 5% or so in the most recent survey week but the fannie mae consumer survey for july when rates were

rising showed an increase in the number of people who think it is a good time to buy a house. to 74% of the those polled. nicole. nicole: that is very interesting. they weren't worried about mortgage rates at that moment. peter barnes. thank you very much. ashley: they're still incredibly low, let's be honest. nicole: true. ashley: peter, thank you. bipartisan push for reforming the tax code. rich edson talks exclusively with congress's two top tax writers. that is coming up next. nicole: we'll take a look at winnerss and losers today. urban outfitters up more than 10%. [ male announcer ] imagine this cute blob is metamucil.

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ashley: 90 minutes until the close. lauren simonetti is at the new york stock exchange. >> let me show you the s&p 500. as you can see, it has been in the green all day. gold prices, by the way, closing up six dollars. a big loser today, barnes & noble. the company reported a first-quarter loss that widened revenue sales. it is an ugly stock. it has been an ugly stock for a little bit. ashley: thank you very much. tracy: our next guest expects prices to rally on growing demand for this precious metal. joining us now is frank holmes.

frank, why do you think gold is going higher after it is paid down nearly 20% this year? >> anytime gold has had a correction of 15%, you get a big rally. this has been more exaggerated than ever. there is a seasonal pattern. i like to identify that as able trade. it is predominantly coming out of china, india, south these asia and turkey. tracy: you talk about chinese new year and very popular gifts during weddings. what about it just as a safety or a reserve?

>> it is always prudent to have it waiting in gold. rebalance it each year. what we found in the past five years, even though gold has gone down in two years, your allocation of this 10%, you both performed. tracy: i remember when it was above $1900 an ounce. you are making a bullish case. can you put some numbers with it? >> that was like the perfect storm. you had obama fighting for the debt ceiling. you have the beginning of the love trade in india and the middle east. all of that demand was just

massive. emerging markets have been slowing their overall growth. if we go back to a store and a fight in congress and we have a strong pickup in gdp and emerging markets, you can see gold trade to that level. on a price adjusted basis, gold would be at $2300. it is still attractive. tracy: you are absolutely flooring everyone who bought gold. you are getting everybody excited. frank holmes, thank you for making this bullish case on gold. we will see what happens. ashley: oil closing down. today had a loss of 2%. the second straight day back group has closed lower.

rich edson traveling along with lawmakers in california. he joins us now with more on his exclusive interview. rich: there are significant differences. republican saying we do not want any more tax revenue. democrats say they want up to a trillion dollars more. we asked them, are they on the same page? >> we are both working towards the same goals. we want to make american companies much more competitive. we want to close most of the major loopholes.

we are all in agreement. i think when the house passes this bill, there will be an opportunity for me and others to say, good work. you are on the right track. >> we do have similar benchmarks. economic growth, jobs, higher wages, those will all factor in and make sure that we are competitive. >> the whole point here is to create jobs. it is a very competitive world. the unemployment rate in the u.s. is too high. the more that we can help businesses and individuals do what they want to doand while

they are paying the appropriate taxes, the better. rich: republicans are in the neighborhood of zero dollars over ten years because of tax reform. is there a reasonable revenue number? >> we will solve that. i think that there will be some revenue. i talked about the need for revenue. >> will it be a trillion? >> i cannot give a number. i do not think it will be that high. rich: tax reform must generate additional revenue. this is a to or of intel this afternoon to try to get input on tax reform.

what does intel want to see in tax reform? >> we had an excellent conversation with the chairman today. intel, we spend about $10 billion a year on research. almost all of that in the united states. we need a tax code to encourage that. the chairman were very receptive to our message. we are an iconic manufacturer. we have spent over $70 both research and capital in the united states. we want to keep working in the u.s. we want to keep developing in the u.s. rich: is there concern that the tax credit may hit intel and companies having in research and development.

>> that is a concern. we need to look at the complete package. we just want to continue to do our research in the u.s. when you look at our rates compared to our for competitors, they are lower than us. rich: thank you very much for joining us. actually, we will send it back to you from intel. ashley: rich, thank you. great stuff. old school media giants playing catch-up to google. we will have the details next. tracy: first, looking at the ten and 30 year treasuries. ♪ mr. baldwin? do you md grabbing my phone and opening the capital one purchase eraser? i need to redeem some venture miles before my demise.

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allegiant air is spreading its wings in new york. adding service to ten airports. most of the new flights will head to florida starting this fall. that is the latest from the fox business network. giving you the power to prosper. see you at five. ♪

tracy: google wants to get into the television business. media giants should be afraid. very afraid. dennis kneale has all the answers. he joins us with this story. dennis: some of the biggest names in media are forging a high-tech alliance.

automating and sprucing up a system for buying and selling billions of dollars in tv and radio ads. and not on the ad world, the buying and selling of spots is a highly automated business. in tv, that process has not been automated much at all. they have been making motions in that direction. google's youtube video site may be the perfect portal for tv on demand. it already gets billions of views every day. the old line media incumbents

are making a line on direct thing that scheme. these industry consortiums often fail. the tv networks have tried it with hulu for tv shows with only lukewarm success. tracy: thank you. i like how you get in depth on that. ashley: you make it count. tracy: you are an expert. ashley: it is a quarter till. time for stocks as we do every 15 minutes. jason, these rising rates, you know, listen, i know they are heading higher.

in reality, is the economic data supporting these rates? >> i do not know. it has created some kind of rush to purchase fixed income products. if you put this in perspective, even at these historic lows, we are still at historic lows even if we pick up a point or two. obviously, there are some people out there, some doomsayers, that feel they need to purchase them. ashley: not a lot going on. this is probably the slowest trading week of the year. with that said, we do have the fed minutes coming out tomorrow.

>> they are talking about an earlier move or a delayed move. i am sure that we will see a knee-jerk reaction. we see a pop due to the retail sector. home depot's numbers are great. i think that is what people are trading off of. there is not a lot of volume behind the move. ashley: we will continue to build all our way through these weeks. [laughter] ashley: thank you so much. tracy: american shrimpers facing a slew of cheaper imports. ashley: let's take a look at some of today's winners and losers on the nasdaq. we have been talking about netflix having another good day.

some good stories today. at least we are in the green. we will be right back. ♪ weekdays are for rising to the challenge. they're the days to take care of business. when possibilities become reality. with centurylink as your trusted partner, our visionary cloud infrastructure and global broadband network free you to focus on what matters.

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ashley: cheap imports, mostly from asia, are crippling their business. now they are fighting for $2 billion in taxes on imports. louisiana lieutenant governor testified before that gro just last week. he joins us now from baton rouge. thank you for joining us. they have ruled out five

countries have improperly subsidized shrimp coming into this country. how much of an advantage to these countries have when it comes to the shrimp business? >> it had a huge impact on the industry. particularly, among the gulf states. the price of shrimp is what determines whether or not they will make it or break it. ashley: how subsidized these products? >> dramatically. some give tax breaks to the shrimping industry. there are a variety of ways that they are subsidized. we are just looking for fairness and equity under the law.

i think it is exactly what the finding will be next month. ashley: china says there is no evidence. what is your response to that? >> i not think they would violate the rules. the commerce department has found that there are grounds for violation. we certainly feel like next month they will reach that conclusion. ashley: there are those that say the shrimping business has already received a lot of compensation from the oil spill in the gulf and the impact is not that severe. >> the impact is dramatic and it is severe. punitive damcompensatory damage. it is very clear that the amount

that was paid was designed to punish the wrongdoing that occurred. we think next month it will be clear that mississippi and louisiana, in particular, have been dramatically impacted. these duties are warranted to offset the subsidies. ashley: the major buyers of the imported shrimp say we are talking about two different products. what comes in from asia is so far shrimp. is there a distinction there question. >> our shrimp are caught in the gulf of mexico. they are not farm raised. consumers look at them side-by-side. they make a determination on what the prices. though foreign shrimp are less expensive because they are being some guys. ashley: for us, the consumers,

and i love my shrimp, does this mean the prices could go up if the tariffs are approved? >> i do not think they will go up. right now there has been some problems in the shipping industry worldwide. it is affecting the quality and the health of the shrimp that is coming in from foreign countries. our domestically caught shrimp are in great shape. we have proven that since the oil spill. all of which have been found to be of the highest-quality. ashley: they are delicious, as well. thank you for joining us. good luck. >> thank you, sleep. tracy: this is a cool story. just over 40 years ago, the miami dolphins made history as the only undefeated team in the

nfl. earlier this hour, president obama welcomed the players and coaches. only one team, and you can quiz yourself, all right, it was the to 2007 new england patriots. why the four decade delay? random, but it is still cool. ashley: 40 years is a little late. tracy: president obama said they looked a little different. [laughter] tracy: that is what he said. ashley: i love it. on "countdown to the closing bell," imagine a gadget that it save your marriage and the way

you live. we will show you exactly what it is. we will have that and the rest of days action on "countdown to the closing bell." state right now, 7 years of music is being streamed. a quarter million tweeters are tweeting. and 900 million dollars are changing hands online. that's why hp built a new kind of server. one that's 80% smaller. uses 89% less energy. and costs 77% less. it's called hp moonshot. and it's giving the internet the room it needs to grow.

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♪ liz: a tale of two earnings reports. we will have an in-depth retail report. we will tell you where you should be shopping for your next stop. it is being heralded as a marriage saver. can you guess what it is? the ceo is here to tell us what all of the excitement is about. netflix is adding -- we will break down what it